Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

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Tag : thinking, bets, making, smarter, decisions, when, dont, have, facts
212: The Extra Degree

212: The Extra Degree

You found it! This is the ORIGINAL 212° the extra degree bestselling book that has been used in training's and workshops worldwide. Written by Sam Parker and published by The Walk The Talk Company, this powerful resource will immediately capture the attention of everyone in your organization and motivate them to new and higher levels of performance. 

It's the message that's motivating millions! 

212° the extra degree captures the essence of excellence in an unforgettable way.

At 211° water is hot. At 212°, it boils. And with boiling water, comes steam. And with steam, you can power a train. 

The one extra degree makes the difference. The 212° concept is illustrated through a clear introduction and then supported by a series of thoughts, examples, and facts that will help readers absorb the 212° mindset. Its purpose is to inspire the extra level of effort that produces exponential results. This book will encourage anyone who reads it to give that extra degree of effort...the extra degree that will produce exponential results. At 5.5 x 5.3 inches (paperback), it's a wonderful little manifesto for encouraging the extra level of effort we all know produces great results.  This is the original book that started it all! This book is the perfect handout to inspire something big!

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[By Annie Duke ] Thinking in Bets (Hardcover)【2018】 by Annie Duke (Author) (Hardcover)

[By Annie Duke ] Thinking in Bets (Hardcover)【2018】 by Annie Duke (Author) (Hardcover)

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

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Tag : annie, duke, thinking, bets, hardcover, %e3%80%902018%e3%80%91, author
Nikki Chu, The Perfect Shades of Neutral Collection 2, Interior Paint and Primer In One, 1-Gallon, Eggshell, Thinking About Chu

Nikki Chu, The Perfect Shades of Neutral Collection 2, Interior Paint and Primer In One, 1-Gallon, Eggshell, Thinking About Chu

Prestige Paints Ultra Premium Acrylic Latex Interior Paint self-primes over properly prepared uncoated drywall, stucco, plaster or previously painted interior surfaces. Ideal for living rooms, family rooms, media rooms, bedrooms, dining rooms, and hallways. On stained or glossy surfaces use a stain blocking primer sealer. Certain colors may require more than one coat for complete hide. Actual paint colors may vary from on-screen and printer representation. Surface Preparation: All loose paint should be removed. The surface needs to be cleaned with detergent to remove dirt and grease and other contaminants. Rinse well to remove all soap residue and let dry. Scuff sand glossy surfaces and repair all imperfections. Remove dust with a damp cloth and allow to dry. New plaster must be properly cured. Patch cracks and holes, sand smooth when dry, then prime with this product. New woods may require and oil base primer/sealer. On metal use proper Rust Primer. Application: Stir or mix paint before using and intermix all containers for color uniformity. Apply this product as is with a high quality applicator such as a 3/8 inches nap roller cover, brush or pad painter. Thin sparingly with water if necessary for spraying. Dry Time: Dries in one hour. Recoat, if necessary, after four hours. Can clean gently with non-abrasive cleaner after 14 days. Cleanup: Use warm water and soap. An Eggshell finish is always a safe bet. It has a soft, washable look that works well in living rooms, family rooms and hallways. It gets its name from its distinctive effect that gives a painted surface the texture of an eggshell when viewed at an angle in the light. Eggshell finishes are low-gloss, but more reflective than flat sheens. Eggshell also is more easily cleaned than a flat finish and is more durable.

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Tag : nikki, perfect, shades, neutral, collection, interior, paint, primer, gallon, eggshell, thinking, about
LinenMe Stone Washed Flat Sheet, 107 by 115-Inch, Natural, Prewashed 100% Linen, Made in Europe,, Top sheet

LinenMe Stone Washed Flat Sheet, 107 by 115-Inch, Natural, Prewashed 100% Linen, Made in Europe,, Top sheet

A pure linen flat sheet your back will say thank you for! it is extremely soft, absorbs moisture quickly, dries fast, can be machine washed as frequently as needed and gets even softer after each wash. Can be used as top sheet.
Temperature regulation - Linen has inherent seemingly magical properties which mean it will keep you warm on the coldest of nights, yet cool when it’s hot. Perfect for those days when it’s so cold your hands get freezing just holding your book and you want to hunker down with a hot water bottle. And also those almost Spring-like nights when you feel like shaking off the blankets and poking your feet out of the covers.
Moisture wicking - As well as keeping you just the right temperature, linen bedlinen will also wick away moisture from your skin.This keeps you even more comfortable as there’s no nasty sweaty feeling. Great for damp late-winter nights and misty mornings when you’ve had quite enough of feeling soggy.
Easy to dry - You can still hang washing out to dry at this time of year, but you just have to keep an eye on the weather. Having bedlinen that dries quickly is a bonus when days are short and sunshine is sparse. Linen is quicker to dry than other fabrics and can also be tumble dried.
Wide range of colours - if you are thinking of investing in some new linen duvet covers or bedsheets we have a huge range to choose from. Add a pure wool throw for extra snuggliness and to bring more texture and colour to your room.
Long-lasting - Not only will linen bedlinen always be in style, it will also last a lifetime. Spending a bit more at first on some top quality linenwares means you actually save in the long term. Linen is durable, and even gets softer and more cosy with each wash. A sumptuous set of linen bedlinen will not only see you through the next few seasons, but will last for many years to come.
At LinenMe we are committed to being as sustainable as possible in the production of our linen home textiles. Linen itself is a great environmentally-friendly material thanks to its durability (meaning less discarded items), the fact that fewer resources are needed to grow and process flax, and its biodegradability.

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Tag : linenme, stone, washed, flat, sheet, inch, natural, prewashed, linen, made, europe
Educational Insights Shelby's Snack Shack Counting, Multicolor

Educational Insights Shelby's Snack Shack Counting, Multicolor

This preschool counting bone-anza is a summer day trip to a dog beach! Shelby buried bones in the sand and needs your help collecting them. Help her dig up the most bones, and you win! Kids take turns using the adorable Shelby Squeezer to fill their dog bowl with bones while they practice early counting and number skills. Sounds simple, but be careful—spin a sneaky seagull, and you’ll lose some bones or get sidetracked chewing a flip flop and miss your turn! Shelby’s Snack Shack helps children build skills including: recognizing the numerals 1 to 5, counting, beginning addition and subtraction, pre-handwriting skills, social skills (such as taking turns and following directions), and simple strategic-thinking skills. Includes: colorful game board, 1 Shelby Squeezer, 40 bones, 4 bowls, 1 double game spinner, and game guide. For 2 to 4 players, ages 4 and up.

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Tag : educational, insights, shelbys, snack, shack, counting, multicolor
Do A Dot Art Markers 5-Pack Shimmer Washable Paint Markers, The Original Dot Marker

Do A Dot Art Markers 5-Pack Shimmer Washable Paint Markers, The Original Dot Marker

Arts and crafts just got easier, and cleaner, with Do A Dot Art! The Original Dot Marker. Do A Dot Art! Shimmer set comes with 5 WASHABLE markers Purple, Yellow, Pink, Blue and Silver. Each marker has a large sponge tip that will never dry out, and makes a perfect dot every time. Do A Dot Art! markers have bold pigments and bright colors that dry fast. Perfect for layering, blending and mixing colors. Do A Dot Art! markers are incredibly beneficial for teaching young children the benefits of layered learning. They are the perfect art medium for those seeking arts and crafts that spark creativity and inspire open-ended unscripted play. Come see why Do A Dot Art! is the number one art medium used in preschools and elementary schools around the world! Do A Dot Art! Where Imagination Begins With A Little Dot. For the past 24 years kids all over the world have been dotting with Do A Dot Art! Do A Dot Art! has become a staple art product in homes and preschools throughout the world. Parents and teachers love that its so easy for their children to create fun, imaginative open ended works of art, with limitless possibilities by simply twisting of the cap and letting imaginations run wild. Do A Dot Art! is designed and manufactured in the USA using only the highest quality materials and standards. Rest easy knowing your children are using quality products manufactured in our own factory and packed with love and care. All Do A Dot Art! markers are gluten free and latex free.

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Tag : markers, pack, shimmer, washable, paint, original, marker
Happened Vegas Funny Shirt | Cool Cute Baby Gift Idea Infant Romper Bodysuit

Happened Vegas Funny Shirt | Cool Cute Baby Gift Idea Infant Romper Bodysuit

We create funny and relevant designs and graphics that all parents will find hilarious and relatable! This Vegas body suit is a perfect example of funny ways to dress your child in a way thats also relatable! Most people say what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas but, it is hard to hide a child! Las Vegas may be far away but it definitely followed you home!

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Tag : happened, vegas, funny, shirt, cool, cute, baby, gift, idea, infant, romper, bodysuit