Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

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Tag : thinking, bets, making, smarter, decisions, when, dont, have, facts
Summary of Annie Duke’s Thinking in Bets by Milkyway Media

Summary of Annie Duke’s Thinking in Bets by Milkyway Media

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts (2018) explores how probabilistic thinkingcan help individuals make better choices. World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke explains how the tactics that professional poker players use can be applied to everyday situations... Purchase this in-depth summary to learn more.

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[By Annie Duke ] Thinking in Bets (Hardcover)【2018】 by Annie Duke (Author) (Hardcover)

[By Annie Duke ] Thinking in Bets (Hardcover)【2018】 by Annie Duke (Author) (Hardcover)

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

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Tag : annie, duke, thinking, bets, hardcover, %e3%80%902018%e3%80%91, author
The Outsiders

The Outsiders

50 years of an iconic classic! This international bestseller and inspiration for a beloved movie is a heroic story of friendship and belonging.

No one ever said life was easy. But Ponyboy is pretty sure that he's got things figured out. He knows that he can count on his brothers, Darry and Sodapop. And he knows that he can count on his friends—true friends who would do anything for him, like Johnny and Two-Bit. But not on much else besides trouble with the Socs, a vicious gang of rich kids whose idea of a good time is beating up on “greasers” like Ponyboy. At least he knows what to expect—until the night someone takes things too far.

The Outsiders is a dramatic and enduring work of fiction that laid the groundwork for the YA genre. S. E. Hinton's classic story of a boy who finds himself on the outskirts of regular society remains as powerful today as it was the day it was first published.

"The Outsiders transformed young-adult fiction from a genre mostly about prom queens, football players and high school crushes to one that portrayed a darker, truer world." —The New York Times

"Taut with tension, filled with drama." —The Chicago Tribune

"[A] classic coming-of-age book." —Philadelphia Daily News

A New York Herald Tribune Best Teenage Book
A Chicago Tribune Book World Spring Book Festival Honor Book
An ALA Best Book for Young Adults
Winner of the Massachusetts Children's Book Award

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Drop Out And Get Schooled: The Case For Thinking Twice About College

Drop Out And Get Schooled: The Case For Thinking Twice About College

Education is broken and most graduates are broke. The purpose of this book is to start an important dialogue about college education. I will make the case for why I believe 70% of college students should drop out. The concept of giving our trust to the educational system without accountability has not worked. I believe it’s time to ask serious questions: Why do we go to college in the first place? - Who should go to college and who shouldn’t? - Can I succeed and do great things without college? - Why do tuition and textbooks cost as much as they do? - Have colleges simply become a big business (with tax-free status)? - Are the subjects taught in college sufficient for life or do we need an upgrade? Let me clarify something: this is NOT a book that declares that higher education is a terrible thing. Many professions require it, but I believe education can and does take place in many forms. As a college dropout and an autodidact, I’ve read over 1,200 books in the last 15 years and believe there are many paths we can take to get educated and do great things. Fair Warning: You may have passionate feelings about the points in this book. Regardless of how strong you feel one way or another, my desired outcome is to start a broad dialogue so we can process the issues – together. Ready?

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212: The Extra Degree

212: The Extra Degree

You found it! This is the ORIGINAL 212° the extra degree bestselling book that has been used in training's and workshops worldwide. Written by Sam Parker and published by The Walk The Talk Company, this powerful resource will immediately capture the attention of everyone in your organization and motivate them to new and higher levels of performance. 

It's the message that's motivating millions! 

212° the extra degree captures the essence of excellence in an unforgettable way.

At 211° water is hot. At 212°, it boils. And with boiling water, comes steam. And with steam, you can power a train. 

The one extra degree makes the difference. The 212° concept is illustrated through a clear introduction and then supported by a series of thoughts, examples, and facts that will help readers absorb the 212° mindset. Its purpose is to inspire the extra level of effort that produces exponential results. This book will encourage anyone who reads it to give that extra degree of effort...the extra degree that will produce exponential results. At 5.5 x 5.3 inches (paperback), it's a wonderful little manifesto for encouraging the extra level of effort we all know produces great results.  This is the original book that started it all! This book is the perfect handout to inspire something big!

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Reposition Yourself: Living Life Without Limits

Reposition Yourself: Living Life Without Limits

The star of BETs Mind, Body & Soul, and featured guest speaker on Oprah’s Lifeclass, Potters House pastor T.D. Jakes offers readers the New York Times bestselling Reposition Yourself: Living Life Without Limits, an inspirational narrative self-help book that provides the spiritual underpinnings of his message about applying Christian principles to adjust to the many changes that life brings. In the vein of Joel Osteen’s Become a Better You and Dr. Phil’s Life Strategies, Reposition Yourself uses wisdom collected from more than thirty years of Jakes’s experience counseling and working with high-profile and everyday people on financial, relational, and spiritual creativity on the path to an enriched life filled with contentment at every stage.

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[By Annie Duke ] Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts (Hardcover)【2018】by Annie Duke (Author) (Hardcover)

[By Annie Duke ] Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts (Hardcover)【2018】by Annie Duke (Author) (Hardcover)

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

More Detail Information...

Tag : annie, duke, thinking, bets, making, smarter, decisions, when, dont, have, facts, hardcover, %e3%80%902018%e3%80%91by, author