Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

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Tag : thinking, bets, making, smarter, decisions, when, dont, have, facts
Summary of Annie Duke’s Thinking in Bets by Milkyway Media

Summary of Annie Duke’s Thinking in Bets by Milkyway Media

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts (2018) explores how probabilistic thinkingcan help individuals make better choices. World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke explains how the tactics that professional poker players use can be applied to everyday situations...

Purchase this in-depth summary to learn more.

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Tag : summary, annie, dukes, thinking, bets, milkyway, media
[By Annie Duke ] Thinking in Bets (Hardcover)【2018】 by Annie Duke (Author) (Hardcover)

[By Annie Duke ] Thinking in Bets (Hardcover)【2018】 by Annie Duke (Author) (Hardcover)

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

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Tag : annie, duke, thinking, bets, hardcover, %e3%80%902018%e3%80%91, author
The Intelligent Thinking: Overcome Thinking Errors, Learn Advanced Techniques to Think Intelligently, Make Smarter Choices, and Become the Best Version of Yourself

The Intelligent Thinking: Overcome Thinking Errors, Learn Advanced Techniques to Think Intelligently, Make Smarter Choices, and Become the Best Version of Yourself

Get Rid of Thinking Errors, Think Intelligently, Develop Mind to Understand Situations Holistically, Make Better Decisions and Start Getting Things Done Faster!

Do you find yourself trapped in older pre-conditioned thinking patterns and miss out on new opportunities? Do you wonder why despite good intentions you often struggle to solve problems? Do you often delay in decision-making?

How would your life change if you can independently observe and learn the art of thinking clearly? What if you could learn the most effective techniques followed by great thinkers like Leonardo da Vinci, Einstein, and business legends like Elon Musk, Warren Buffett.

Imagine having access to a fully loaded toolbox with sharpest thinking tool you could use to analyze every situation holistically? Imagine your confidence boosting up if you not only are aware non-serving thinking patterns but also master the effective thinking techniques followed by the high performers and getting things done faster.

Som Bathla, an avid reader, researcher and an Amazon best-selling author of multiple books reveals the answers to above and much more in his book THE INTELLIGENT THINKING.

THE INTELLIGENT THINKING is written as a succinct guide revealing most effective thinking strategies (though some might sound counter-intuitive) to address all your curiosity on how to think intelligently

Here is what you will learn in THE INTELLIGENT THINKING

  • How human brain operates and how precisely thinking process works within our mind?
  • How Elon Musk transformed himself from an internet multimillionaire to a space rocket industry leader with this first principle thinking.
  • How your thinking abilities are not dependent on your IQ and what matters most as per Warren Buffett.
  • Different types of thinking people follow (check where do you find yourself)
  • Most common cognitive biases that trip you up for making irrational, illogical decisions and triggered by your emotions.
  • Understand  the power of neuroplasticity that allows you to change the way you think.
  • Beware of your thinking patterns marketers misuse to sell you more of what you never wanted.
  • How thinking about failing in a particular way can help you better prepared for success – know the technique of inversion thinking.
  • First order thinking vs. second order thinking – how thinkers do a deep work in thinking.
  • How integrative thinking can create a whole blue ocean of possibilities.
  • Learn how this type of thinking invented ‘shopping cart’ and how rolling suitcases got invented out of a particular type of thinking.
  • Understand how to think like Leonardo da Vinci by knowing about seven approaches he used to improve his intelligence.
  • And much much more….

Albert Einstein once rightly said:

“The world we have created is a product of our thinking; it cannot be changed without changing our thinking.”

THE INTELLIGENT THINKING is for anyone and everyone who is convinced about the limitless potential of human mind and is sincerely looking for the ways to become an intelligent thinker.

Are you ready?

Take Your First Step Toward Intelligent Thinking, Unleash Your Mind’s Full Potential, and Become Your Own Best Version!

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Tag : intelligent, thinking, overcome, errors, learn, advanced, techniques, think, intelligently, make, smarter, choices, become, best, version, yourself
Self Discipline: Badass Self Help Principles For Work And Life Goals And Boost Confidence By Thinking In Controlled Bets So That You Are A Game Changer (No-drama Or Excuses And Achieve Success)

Self Discipline: Badass Self Help Principles For Work And Life Goals And Boost Confidence By Thinking In Controlled Bets So That You Are A Game Changer (No-drama Or Excuses And Achieve Success)

Many people barely develop self-discipline because of various reasons. It could be stress, lack of motivation, and exhaustion. However, despite these varied causes, there are ways on how one can successfully become a well-disciplined person. Self-discipline is not just about controlling oneself, but is about living a healthy, quality and successful life.

It is important to understand that self-discipline expresses itself in different forms. These include:


  • The ability to persevere through hardships

  • The strength to continue even in the face of setbacks and failures

  • The wisdom to avoid distractions and procrastination

  • The power to resist temptation

  • The zeal to overcome bad habits

  • The motivation to fulfill your objectives

  • The will to try again and again until you accomplish your goal




Do you feel like your life could be better organized? Are you seeking for a guide to gaining absolute self-control? Do you want to be able to set targets for yourself to fulfill and then zero in on these targets without any loss of focus whatsoever? For whatever reason you have picked this book up, it is meant for you; to teach you how to build better self-discipline and control over positive thinking.


By overcoming any bad habits that may hinder you, you set yourself up for success and this book can help you do just that. So sit down and get started on the exercises included here to help you become the best and most successful version of yourself.

In this book, you will learn what self-discipline really means, how to deal with negative habits that make you undisciplined and how to achieve self-discipline. You will learn the most amazing techniques for building the right level of self-discipline to help you achieve your goals.

Download your copy today!

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Tag : self, discipline, badass, help, principles, work, life, goals, boost, confidence, thinking, controlled, bets, that, game, changer, drama, excuses, achieve, success
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto Book 1)

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Incerto Book 1)

Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.

Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.

This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.

The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.

However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.

Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time

A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

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Tag : fooled, randomness, hidden, role, chance, life, markets, incerto, book
Anxious for Nothing Study Guide: Finding Calm in a Chaotic World

Anxious for Nothing Study Guide: Finding Calm in a Chaotic World

Do you feel weighted down with worry? Does the uncertainty and chaos of life keep you up at night? Are irrational fears your constant companion? Could you use some calm?

In this five-session video Bible study, bestselling author Max Lucado explores God’s treatment plan for anxiety found in Philippians 4:4–8. As you follow this prescription – celebrating God’s goodness, asking for his help, leaving your concerns with him, and meditation on good things – you will experience God’s peace. This is a peace that “transcends all understanding” and will help you reframe the way you look at your fears.

While anxiety is a part of life, it doesn’t have to dominate your life. With God as your helper and his promises at your side, you can sleep better tonight and smile more tomorrow. You can talk yourself off the ledge and view bad news through the lens of God’s sovereignty. You can discover a life of calm and develop tools for combating the onslaught of anxiety.

The Anxious for Nothing Study Guide includes video discussion questions, Bible exploration, and personal study and reflection materials for in-between sessions.

Sessions include:

  1. Rejoice in the Lord Always
  2. Let Your Gentleness Be Evident to All
  3. Present Your Requests to God
  4. The Peace of God Will Guard Your Heart
  5. Meditate on These Things

Designed for use with the Anxious for Nothing Video Study (sold separately).

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Tag : anxious, nothing, study, guide, finding, calm, chaotic, world
The Sense of Style: The Thinking Person's Guide to Writing in the 21st Century

The Sense of Style: The Thinking Person's Guide to Writing in the 21st Century

 “Charming and erudite," from the author of Enlightenment Now, "The wit and insight and clarity he brings . . . is what makes this book such a gem.” —Time.com
 
Why is so much writing so bad, and how can we make it better? Is the English language being corrupted by texting and social media? Do the kids today even care about good writing—and why should we care? From the author of The Better Angels of Our Nature and Enlightenment Now.

In this entertaining and eminently practical book, the cognitive scientist, dictionary consultant, and New York Times–bestselling author Steven Pinker rethinks the usage guide for the twenty-first century. Using examples of great and gruesome modern prose while avoiding the scolding tone and Spartan tastes of the classic manuals, he shows how the art of writing can be a form of pleasurable mastery and a fascinating intellectual topic in its own right. The Sense of Style is for writers of all kinds, and for readers who are interested in letters and literature and are curious about the ways in which the sciences of mind can illuminate how language works at its best.

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Tag : sense, style, thinking, persons, guide, writing, 21st, century
The Life of an Entrepreneur in 90 Pages: There's an Amazing Story Behind Every Amazing Story (Entrepreneur Education Series)

The Life of an Entrepreneur in 90 Pages: There's an Amazing Story Behind Every Amazing Story (Entrepreneur Education Series)

Have you ever wondered what it takes to be an Entrepreneur? Do you wish you had a simple compass - or a set of steps that help you understand what it takes to align your thinking?

That's exactly the purpose of The Life of an Entrepreneur in 90 Pages

This book has a simple goal: to help you lay a foundation to achieve your dreams. Many people have passion and a burning desire to achieve something more but need direction and assistance focusing their energy.

In this book, I have outlined six key points on the path to experience the life of an entrepreneur. These points will become your personal "compass" and will help you point the way to setting a vision that is uniquely yours as you pursue your dreams. You will also get a glimpse into the lives of several very successful entrepreneurs along the way.

The key points are:
1.The Truth - Accepting Reality
2.Vision - Looking Forward
3.Commitment - Staying with Your Vision
4.Resiliency - Recovering from Setbacks
5.Validation - Experiencing Confirmation
6.Drifting or Driving - The Challenge!

My hope is that this book motivates you to action and you personally discover the satisfaction of the life of an entrepreneur.

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Tag : life, entrepreneur, pages, theres, amazing, story, behind, every, education, series
Is It Wrong to Try to Pick Up Girls in a Dungeon?, Vol. 11 (light novel) (Is It Wrong to Pick Up Girls in a Dungeon?)

Is It Wrong to Try to Pick Up Girls in a Dungeon?, Vol. 11 (light novel) (Is It Wrong to Pick Up Girls in a Dungeon?)

After saving the young dragon girl Wiene, Bell's name has become synonymous with "greedy", "despicable", and "traitor." He and his familia have completely lost the trust and respect of everyone residing in Orario. There's no time for him to feel sorry himself when his newfound monstrous friends, the Xenos, need his help to get home. But now that the the greatest obstacle in their way is Loki Familia, does Bell have what it takes to raise a fist against his beloved idol, the Sword Princess Aiz Wallenstein?

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Tag : wrong, pick, girls, dungeon, light, novel